Termoli Calcio v Atletico Ascoli prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Termoli CalcioDrawAtletico Ascoli

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico Ascoli 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atletico Ascoli just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Termoli Calcio 31%, draw 34%, Atletico Ascoli 35%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Termoli Calcio v Atletico AscoliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Termoli Calcio win31%

Draw34%

Atletico Ascoli win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup F · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Termoli Calcio

Atletico Ascoli

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Atletico Ascoli	8	+3	13
12	Termoli Calcio	8	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico ascoli winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

35% The market34%

Us35%

~~Market~~34%

We make Atletico Ascoli a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Termoli Calcio v Atletico Ascoli~~0.92 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~12 v 7

~~The market · Atletico Ascoli win~~34% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Ascoli win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Termoli Calcio win	31%	36%	−5
Draw	34%	30%	+4
Atletico Ascoli win	35%	34%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	30%	44%	−14
Both teams to score	39%	49%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	58%	68%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	13%	25%	−12
Termoli Calcio or draw	65%	66%	−1
Termoli Calcio clean sheet	37%	–	–
Atletico Ascoli clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.9%

0123450 15.9 13.5 7.4 2.5 1 12.3 14.3 6.7 2.3 2 6.2 6.1 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Termoli Calcio down, Atletico Ascoli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Termoli Calcio at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Ascoli away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Termoli Calcio, 1.01 for Atletico Ascoli. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 TER · TER 3–1 ATL · TER 0–0 ATL · ATL 1–2 TER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept

TERMOLI CALCIO

DLLWWL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

ATLETICO ASCOLI

DWLLWW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	8	+12	20
2	Teramo	8	+9	19
3	Vigor Senigallia	8	+5	16
4	Foligno Calcio	8	+2	16
5	Notaresco	8	+4	14
6	Ancona	8	+4	14
7	Atletico Ascoli	8	+3	13
8	Fossombrone	8	−3	13
9	Montecchio Gallo	8	0	11
10	Real Giulianova	8	0	10
11	Lanciano FC	8	−1	10
12	Termoli Calcio	8	−1	10
13	Santegidiese	8	−4	8
14	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
15	Maceratese	8	−7	7
16	Recanatese	8	−3	6
17	Angelana	8	−7	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4