Sporting Trestina v Teramo prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Sporting Trestina 0–2 Teramo TERAMO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Teramo win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.328

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Teramo win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Teramo 53% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 22–23–54
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Trestina v Teramo
3′Little has changed for our model: Teramo 53% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 22–24–54
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sporting Trestina 0–1 Teramo
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Sporting Trestina 0–2 Teramo
40′Teramo find the net on 37′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Teramo win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Teramo win: 53% at kick-off, 49% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Teramo win: 53% at kick-off, 49% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Teramo win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
42′Teramo find the net on 37′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Teramo win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Teramo win: 53% at kick-off, 49% now
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Trestina 0–2 Teramo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Teramo win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
46′SECOND HALF Sporting Trestina 0–2 Teramo
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Sporting Trestina 1–2 Teramo
FTFULL TIME Sporting Trestina 0–2 Teramo
FTSporting Trestina 0–2 Teramo · Teramo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sporting Trestina win22%

Draw25%

Teramo win53%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sporting Trestina

Teramo

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · teramo winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Teramo a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Trestina win	22%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Teramo win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Sporting Trestina or draw	47%	–	–
Sporting Trestina clean sheet	17%	–	–
Teramo clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.9 9.1 9.0 5.5 2.5 1 5.1 11.7 9.5 5.7 2.7 2 3.3 5.7 5.1 3.1 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Trestina down, Teramo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sporting Trestina at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). Teramo away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Sporting Trestina, 1.82 for Teramo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F

SPORTING TRESTINA

LDLLWL2–5 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

TERAMO

WDWWLW3–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 6–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7
15	Recanatese	7	−2	6
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2