Sporting Trestina v Santegidiese prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sporting TrestinaDrawSantegidiese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting Trestina 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sporting Trestina just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Trestina 36%, draw 31%, Santegidiese 33%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Trestina v SantegidieseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Trestina win36%

Draw31%

Santegidiese win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup F · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Trestina

Santegidiese

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Santegidiese	8	−4	8
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting trestina winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Sporting Trestina a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Trestina v Santegidiese~~1.16 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 8~~18 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting Trestina win

Published at 35%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Trestina win	36%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Santegidiese win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Sporting Trestina or draw	67%	–	–
Sporting Trestina clean sheet	34%	–	–
Santegidiese clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.0 10.5 6.3 2.4 1 11.1 14.0 7.1 2.6 2 7.0 7.4 4.1 3 2.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Trestina down, Santegidiese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sporting Trestina at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). Santegidiese away: 1.00 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Sporting Trestina, 1.10 for Santegidiese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept

SPORTING TRESTINA

LLWLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

SANTEGIDIESE

LWDLLL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	8	+12	20
2	Teramo	8	+9	19
3	Vigor Senigallia	8	+5	16
4	Foligno Calcio	8	+2	16
5	Notaresco	8	+4	14
6	Ancona	8	+4	14
7	Atletico Ascoli	8	+3	13
8	Fossombrone	8	−3	13
9	Montecchio Gallo	8	0	11
10	Real Giulianova	8	0	10
11	Lanciano FC	8	−1	10
12	Termoli Calcio	8	−1	10
13	Santegidiese	8	−4	8
14	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
15	Maceratese	8	−7	7
16	Recanatese	8	−3	6
17	Angelana	8	−7	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4