Santegidiese v Vigor Senigallia prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 03:35

Santegidiese 0–2 Vigor Senigallia VIGOR SENIGALLIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vigor Senigallia win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vigor Senigallia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Santegidiese 36%, draw 28%, Vigor Senigallia 37%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Santegidiese v Vigor SenigalliaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Santegidiese win36%

Draw28%

Vigor Senigallia win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup F · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santegidiese

Vigor Senigallia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vigor Senigallia	7	+3	13
11	Santegidiese	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vigor senigallia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Vigor Senigallia a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santegidiese v Vigor Senigallia~~1.34 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santegidiese win	36%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Vigor Senigallia win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Santegidiese or draw	63%	–	–
Santegidiese clean sheet	26%	–	–
Vigor Senigallia clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.1 8.1 6.2 2.9 1 8.0 13.0 8.1 3.7 2 6.0 7.9 5.4 2.5 3 2.7 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santegidiese down, Vigor Senigallia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,599 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Santegidiese at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Vigor Senigallia away: 3.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Santegidiese, 1.37 for Vigor Senigallia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept

SANTEGIDIESE

DLWDLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2

VIGOR SENIGALLIA

WWWDLL1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–6 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	7	+11	17
2	Teramo	7	+8	16
3	Foligno Calcio	7	+3	16
4	Ancona	7	+5	14
5	Vigor Senigallia	7	+3	13
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Lanciano FC	7	+3	10
8	Termoli Calcio	7	0	10
9	Atletico Ascoli	7	−1	10
10	Fossombrone	7	−4	10
11	Santegidiese	7	−2	8
12	Montecchio Gallo	7	−2	8
13	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
14	Real Giulianova	7	−1	7
15	Maceratese	7	−4	7
16	Recanatese	7	−2	6
17	Angelana	7	−5	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4