Recanatese v L'Aquila

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said L'Aquila win at 49%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: L'Aquila 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 26–26–49
3. 1′A goal for Recanatese on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 51–22–27
4. 1′KICK-OFF Recanatese v L'Aquila
5. 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Recanatese 1–0 L'Aquila
6. 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 27% now
7. 1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Recanatese win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was L'Aquila win 27%)
8. 2′We said L'Aquila at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–0 · 52–22–27
9. 7′Recanatese score on 7′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 75–15–11
10. 7′We said L'Aquila at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 2–0 · 75–15–11
11. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Recanatese 2–0 L'Aquila
12. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 11% now
13. 14′We said L'Aquila at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–0 · 76–14–9
14. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
15. 20′L'Aquila find the net on 20′. 2–1. 2–1 · 54–24–22
16. 20′We said L'Aquila at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 2–1 · 54–24–22
17. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Recanatese 2–1 L'Aquila
18. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 22% now
19. 29′We said L'Aquila at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 56–24–19
20. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 57–24–19
21. 45′HALF-TIME Recanatese 2–1 L'Aquila
22. 46′SECOND HALF Recanatese 2–1 L'Aquila
23. 56′Recanatese are down to ten from 55′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 66–25–10
24. 56′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Recanatese
25. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
26. 67′A goal for L'Aquila on 66′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 18–54–28
27. 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 18–54–28
28. 67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Recanatese 2–2 L'Aquila
29. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 28% now
30. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Recanatese win 18%)
31. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
32. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
33. 88′L'Aquila score on 88′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–5–95
34. 88′We said L'Aquila at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
35. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Recanatese 2–3 L'Aquila
36. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
37. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' L'Aquila win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
38. 89′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–4–96
39. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' L'Aquila win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
40. FTFULL TIME Recanatese 2–3 L'Aquila
41. FTRecanatese 2–3 L'Aquila · L'Aquila win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.