Real Giulianova v Ancona prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Real Giulianova 0–2 Ancona ANCONA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ancona win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ancona win at 36%.
1′KICK-OFF Real Giulianova v Ancona
2′Much as we predicted: Ancona was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
4′Much as we predicted: Ancona was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ancona win 31%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ancona win 31%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ancona win 31%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ancona win 31%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 55' Real Giulianova 0–1 Ancona
45′HALF-TIME Real Giulianova 0–1 Ancona
46′SECOND HALF Real Giulianova 0–1 Ancona
FTFULL TIME Real Giulianova 0–2 Ancona
FTReal Giulianova 0–2 Ancona · Ancona win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Giulianova win33%

Draw31%

Ancona win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Giulianova

Ancona

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ancona winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Ancona a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Giulianova win	33%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Ancona win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Real Giulianova or draw	64%	–	–
Real Giulianova clean sheet	32%	–	–
Ancona clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.3 11.1 7.0 2.7 1 10.5 14.3 7.4 2.9 2 6.4 7.1 4.0 3 2.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Giulianova down, Ancona across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Giulianova at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ancona away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Real Giulianova, 1.14 for Ancona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REA 1–2 ANC · ANC 1–0 REA

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F

REAL GIULIANOVA

LLDLWW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 4–2 · 3–1

ANCONA

WLWDDW2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7
15	Recanatese	7	−2	6
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2