Pietralunga v Sporting Trestina prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Pietralunga 2–0 Sporting Trestina PIETRALUNGA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pietralunga win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.558

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pietralunga win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pietralunga was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
1′KICK-OFF Pietralunga v Sporting Trestina
20′Pietralunga find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Pietralunga 1–0 Sporting Trestina
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Pietralunga win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
21′We published Pietralunga at 39%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
39′We published Pietralunga at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′Pietralunga find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
45′We published Pietralunga at 39%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 76–19–5
45′HALF-TIME Pietralunga 1–0 Sporting Trestina
46′SECOND HALF Pietralunga 1–0 Sporting Trestina
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+11' Pietralunga win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
64′We published Pietralunga at 39%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–16–3
70′We published Pietralunga at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Pietralunga win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
78′A goal for Pietralunga on 78′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
78′We published Pietralunga at 39%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Pietralunga 2–0 Sporting Trestina
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Pietralunga win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We published Pietralunga at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Pietralunga 2–0 Sporting Trestina
FTPietralunga 2–0 Sporting Trestina · Pietralunga win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pietralunga are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pietralunga 39%, draw 32%, Sporting Trestina 29%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Pietralunga v Sporting TrestinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pietralunga win39%

Draw32%

Sporting Trestina win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup F · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pietralunga

Sporting Trestina

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Pietralunga	7	−6	5
18	Sporting Trestina	7	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pietralunga winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Pietralunga a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pietralunga v Sporting Trestina~~1.18 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~16 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pietralunga win	39%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Sporting Trestina win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Pietralunga or draw	71%	–	–
Pietralunga clean sheet	38%	–	–
Sporting Trestina clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.2 10.2 5.6 1 12.4 14.1 6.4 2.1 2 7.9 7.6 3.7 3 3.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pietralunga down, Sporting Trestina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Pietralunga at home: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). Sporting Trestina away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Pietralunga, 0.98 for Sporting Trestina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept

PIETRALUNGA

LLLDLW0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

SPORTING TRESTINA

DLLWLL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	7	+11	17
2	Teramo	7	+8	16
3	Foligno Calcio	7	+3	16
4	Ancona	7	+5	14
5	Vigor Senigallia	7	+3	13
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Lanciano FC	7	+3	10
8	Termoli Calcio	7	0	10
9	Atletico Ascoli	7	−1	10
10	Fossombrone	7	−4	10
11	Santegidiese	7	−2	8
12	Montecchio Gallo	7	−2	8
13	Real Giulianova	7	−1	7
14	Maceratese	7	−4	7
15	Recanatese	7	−2	6
16	Pietralunga	7	−6	5
17	Angelana	7	−5	4
18	Sporting Trestina	7	−7	4