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Notaresco v Recanatese

Notaresco

2–1Full time

Recanatese

Serie D - Girone F · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Notaresco 2–1 Recanatese NOTARESCO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Notaresco win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.386

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Notaresco win at 49%.
5′KICK-OFF Notaresco v Recanatese
7′Much as we predicted: Notaresco was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–24
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Notaresco 1–0 Recanatese
24′A goal for Notaresco on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Notaresco win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 18' Notaresco 1–0 Recanatese
45′We published Notaresco at 49%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′HALF-TIME Notaresco 1–0 Recanatese
50′SECOND HALF Notaresco 1–0 Recanatese
57′We published Notaresco at 49%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Notaresco win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Notaresco 1–1 Recanatese
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Notaresco 2–1 Recanatese
FTFULL TIME Notaresco 2–1 Recanatese
FTNotaresco 2–1 Recanatese · Notaresco win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Notaresco win49%

Draw27%

Recanatese win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · notaresco winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Notaresco a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Notaresco win	49%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Recanatese win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Notaresco or draw	76%	–	–
Notaresco clean sheet	36%	–	–
Recanatese clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.5 6.4 3.9 1 10.3 12.7 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 9.2 4.8 3 4.9 5.0 2.6 4 2.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Notaresco down, Recanatese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Notaresco at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Recanatese away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Notaresco, 1.04 for Recanatese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NOT 2–0 REC · REC 1–4 NOT · NOT 1–1 REC · REC 2–0 NOT

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F

NOTARESCO

LDWLDW1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

RECANATESE

DDWDLL0–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
6	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
7	Notaresco	6	0	8
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7
15	Recanatese	6	−1	6
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2