Montecchio Gallo v Angelana prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Montecchio Gallo 3–1 Angelana MONTECCHIO GALLO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Montecchio Gallo win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 2 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Montecchio Gallo win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Montecchio Gallo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
1′KICK-OFF Montecchio Gallo v Angelana
FTFULL TIME Montecchio Gallo 3–1 Angelana
FTMontecchio Gallo 3–1 Angelana · Montecchio Gallo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Montecchio Gallo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Montecchio Gallo 40%, draw 32%, Angelana 28%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Montecchio Gallo v AngelanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Montecchio Gallo win40%

Draw32%

Angelana win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup F · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Montecchio Gallo

Angelana

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Montecchio Gallo	7	−2	8
17	Angelana	7	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · montecchio gallo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Montecchio Gallo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Montecchio Gallo v Angelana~~1.20 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 4~~12 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montecchio Gallo win	40%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Angelana win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Montecchio Gallo or draw	72%	–	–
Montecchio Gallo clean sheet	39%	–	–
Angelana clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 13.4 10.0 5.3 1 12.9 14.0 6.1 2 8.3 7.7 3.6 3 3.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montecchio Gallo down, Angelana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,599 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Montecchio Gallo at home: 1.00 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Angelana away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Montecchio Gallo, 0.95 for Angelana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept

MONTECCHIO GALLO

WWDDLL1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

ANGELANA

LLLDLL0–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	7	+11	17
2	Teramo	7	+8	16
3	Foligno Calcio	7	+3	16
4	Ancona	7	+5	14
5	Vigor Senigallia	7	+3	13
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Lanciano FC	7	+3	10
8	Termoli Calcio	7	0	10
9	Atletico Ascoli	7	−1	10
10	Fossombrone	7	−4	10
11	Santegidiese	7	−2	8
12	Montecchio Gallo	7	−2	8
13	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
14	Real Giulianova	7	−1	7
15	Maceratese	7	−4	7
16	Recanatese	7	−2	6
17	Angelana	7	−5	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4