Maceratese v Montecchio Gallo prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MacerateseDrawMontecchio Gallo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Maceratese 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Maceratese just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Maceratese 37%, draw 28%, Montecchio Gallo 35%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Maceratese v Montecchio GalloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Maceratese win37%

Draw28%

Montecchio Gallo win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup F · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maceratese

Montecchio Gallo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Montecchio Gallo	8	0	11
15	Maceratese	8	−7	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maceratese winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Maceratese a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maceratese v Montecchio Gallo~~1.32 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~15 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maceratese win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Montecchio Gallo win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Maceratese or draw	65%	–	–
Maceratese clean sheet	28%	–	–
Montecchio Gallo clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.8 8.6 6.1 2.7 1 8.8 13.3 7.8 3.4 2 6.4 8.0 5.1 2.2 3 2.9 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maceratese down, Montecchio Gallo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Maceratese at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Montecchio Gallo away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Maceratese, 1.28 for Montecchio Gallo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept

MACERATESE

LWDWLL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 2–5

MONTECCHIO GALLO

WDDLLW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	8	+12	20
2	Teramo	8	+9	19
3	Vigor Senigallia	8	+5	16
4	Foligno Calcio	8	+2	16
5	Notaresco	8	+4	14
6	Ancona	8	+4	14
7	Atletico Ascoli	8	+3	13
8	Fossombrone	8	−3	13
9	Montecchio Gallo	8	0	11
10	Real Giulianova	8	0	10
11	Lanciano FC	8	−1	10
12	Termoli Calcio	8	−1	10
13	Santegidiese	8	−4	8
14	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
15	Maceratese	8	−7	7
16	Recanatese	8	−3	6
17	Angelana	8	−7	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4