Maceratese v Foligno Calcio prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Maceratese 0–2 Foligno Calcio MACERATESE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maceratese win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.672

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maceratese win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maceratese 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Maceratese v Foligno Calcio
6′Little has changed for our model: Maceratese 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maceratese win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Maceratese 0–0 Foligno Calcio
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Maceratese win 32%)
46′SECOND HALF Maceratese 0–0 Foligno Calcio
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Maceratese 0–1 Foligno Calcio
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Maceratese 0–2 Foligno Calcio
FTFULL TIME Maceratese 0–2 Foligno Calcio
FTMaceratese 0–2 Foligno Calcio · Maceratese win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Maceratese win38%

Draw29%

Foligno Calcio win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Maceratese

Foligno Calcio

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maceratese winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Maceratese a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maceratese win	38%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Foligno Calcio win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Maceratese or draw	67%	–	–
Maceratese clean sheet	31%	–	–
Foligno Calcio clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.9 8.9 6.0 2.4 1 9.6 13.7 7.5 3.0 2 6.9 8.0 4.8 3 3.0 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maceratese down, Foligno Calcio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Maceratese at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Foligno Calcio away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Maceratese, 1.20 for Foligno Calcio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F

MACERATESE

LLLWDW0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

FOLIGNO CALCIO

WWLWDW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7
15	Recanatese	7	−2	6
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2