Lanciano FC v Montecchio Gallo prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Lanciano FC 3–1 Montecchio Gallo LANCIANO FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lanciano FC win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.516

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lanciano FC win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Lanciano FC 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–30
4′Little has changed for our model: Lanciano FC 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
27′A goal for Lanciano FC on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
39′A goal for Lanciano FC on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Lanciano FC win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Lanciano FC 1–0 Montecchio Gallo
46′SECOND HALF Lanciano FC 1–0 Montecchio Gallo
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Lanciano FC 2–0 Montecchio Gallo
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Lanciano FC 3–0 Montecchio Gallo
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Lanciano FC 3–1 Montecchio Gallo
FTFULL TIME Lanciano FC 3–1 Montecchio Gallo
FTLanciano FC 3–1 Montecchio Gallo · Lanciano FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lanciano FC win41%

Draw29%

Montecchio Gallo win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lanciano FC

Montecchio Gallo

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lanciano fc winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Lanciano FC a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lanciano FC win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Montecchio Gallo win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Lanciano FC or draw	71%	–	–
Lanciano FC clean sheet	34%	–	–
Montecchio Gallo clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.4 8.5 5.2 1 10.7 13.6 6.8 2.5 2 7.9 8.3 4.5 3 3.6 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lanciano FC down, Montecchio Gallo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Lanciano FC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Montecchio Gallo away: 0.50 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Lanciano FC, 1.09 for Montecchio Gallo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F

LANCIANO FC

LDLWWL1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 0–2

MONTECCHIO GALLO

LWWDDL1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7
15	Recanatese	7	−2	6
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2