L'Aquila v Santegidiese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:32

L'Aquila 2–1 Santegidiese L'AQUILA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said L'Aquila win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.319

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

L'Aquila win54%

Draw27%

Santegidiese win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

L'Aquila

Santegidiese

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · l'aquila winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

54% The market–

Us54%

We make L'Aquila a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
L'Aquila win	54%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Santegidiese win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
L'Aquila or draw	81%	–	–
L'Aquila clean sheet	42%	–	–
Santegidiese clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 9.5 6.1 3.2 1 12.2 12.4 5.0 2 10.7 9.2 4.0 3 5.9 5.1 2.2 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+L'Aquila down, Santegidiese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

L'Aquila at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Santegidiese away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for L'Aquila, 0.88 for Santegidiese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F

L'AQUILA

WWDDWW1–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

SANTEGIDIESE

WDLWDL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7
15	Recanatese	7	−2	6
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2