L'Aquila v Foligno Calcio prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

L'AquilaDrawFoligno Calcio

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · L'Aquila 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

L'Aquila are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: L'Aquila 51%, draw 27%, Foligno Calcio 21%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on L'Aquila v Foligno CalcioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

L'Aquila win51%

Draw27%

Foligno Calcio win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup F · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

L'Aquila

Foligno Calcio

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · l'aquila winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market59%

Us51%

~~Market~~59%

We make L'Aquila a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · L'Aquila v Foligno Calcio~~1.56 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 16~~1 v 4

~~The market · L'Aquila win~~59% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · L'Aquila win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
L'Aquila win	51%	59%	−8
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Foligno Calcio win	21%	16%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	47%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	45%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
L'Aquila or draw	79%	84%	−5
L'Aquila clean sheet	41%	–	–
Foligno Calcio clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.8 6.9 3.6 1 12.2 12.7 5.4 2 10.1 9.0 4.1 3 5.3 4.7 2.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+L'Aquila down, Foligno Calcio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

L'Aquila at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Foligno Calcio away: 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for L'Aquila, 0.91 for Foligno Calcio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept

L'AQUILA

DDWWWW0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 3–2

FOLIGNO CALCIO

LWDWWL1–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	8	+12	20
2	Teramo	8	+9	19
3	Vigor Senigallia	8	+5	16
4	Foligno Calcio	8	+2	16
5	Notaresco	8	+4	14
6	Ancona	8	+4	14
7	Atletico Ascoli	8	+3	13
8	Fossombrone	8	−3	13
9	Montecchio Gallo	8	0	11
10	Real Giulianova	8	0	10
11	Lanciano FC	8	−1	10
12	Termoli Calcio	8	−1	10
13	Santegidiese	8	−4	8
14	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
15	Maceratese	8	−7	7
16	Recanatese	8	−3	6
17	Angelana	8	−7	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4