Fossombrone v Termoli Calcio prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Fossombrone 1–2 Termoli Calcio DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
3′Little has changed for our model: the draw 37% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 37–35–28
6′Little has changed for our model: the draw 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–36–27
24′10′ and it is 1–0: Fossombrone have scored. 1–0 · 75–19–6
29′10′ and it is 1–0: Fossombrone have scored. 1–0 · 75–19–5
40′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Fossombrone win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 18% now
46′SECOND HALF Fossombrone 1–0 Termoli Calcio
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Fossombrone 1–1 Termoli Calcio
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Fossombrone 2–1 Termoli Calcio
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Fossombrone 1–2 Termoli Calcio
FTFULL TIME Fossombrone 1–2 Termoli Calcio
FTFossombrone 1–2 Termoli Calcio · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Fossombrone win36%

Draw37%

Termoli Calcio win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fossombrone

Termoli Calcio

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawPublished 11 Oct 14:09

37% The market–

Us37%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 21%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fossombrone win	36%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Termoli Calcio win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	23%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	50%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Fossombrone or draw	73%	–	–
Fossombrone clean sheet	48%	–	–
Termoli Calcio clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.9%

0123450 20.9 13.1 5.3 1 16.2 13.8 4.7 2 7.9 5.7 2.1 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fossombrone down, Termoli Calcio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fossombrone at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Termoli Calcio away: 0.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Fossombrone, 0.74 for Termoli Calcio. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~0 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TER 0–0 FOS · FOS 1–0 TER · TER 0–1 FOS · FOS 0–0 TER

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F

FOSSOMBRONE

WLWLDW2–1 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 1–0

TERMOLI CALCIO

LWDLLW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7
15	Recanatese	7	−2	6
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2