Fossombrone v Teramo prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FossombroneDrawTeramo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Teramo 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Teramo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fossombrone 24%, draw 27%, Teramo 49%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Fossombrone v TeramoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Fossombrone win24%

Draw27%

Teramo win49%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup F · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fossombrone

Teramo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Teramo	8	+9	19
8	Fossombrone	8	−3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · teramo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market50%

Us49%

~~Market~~50%

We make Teramo a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fossombrone v Teramo~~1.00 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 19~~8 v 2

~~The market · Teramo win~~50% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Teramo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fossombrone win	24%	22%	+2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Teramo win	49%	50%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	49%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Fossombrone or draw	51%	50%	+1
Fossombrone clean sheet	22%	–	–
Teramo clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.0 11.1 9.3 4.9 1 6.8 12.8 9.1 4.8 2 3.9 5.9 4.6 2.4 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fossombrone down, Teramo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fossombrone at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Teramo away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Fossombrone, 1.56 for Teramo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~TER 2–1 FOS · FOS 0–1 TER · TER 1–1 FOS · TER 1–0 FOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept

FOSSOMBRONE

WLDWLW1–0 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2

TERAMO

WWLWWW3–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 6–4 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	8	+12	20
2	Teramo	8	+9	19
3	Vigor Senigallia	8	+5	16
4	Foligno Calcio	8	+2	16
5	Notaresco	8	+4	14
6	Ancona	8	+4	14
7	Atletico Ascoli	8	+3	13
8	Fossombrone	8	−3	13
9	Montecchio Gallo	8	0	11
10	Real Giulianova	8	0	10
11	Lanciano FC	8	−1	10
12	Termoli Calcio	8	−1	10
13	Santegidiese	8	−4	8
14	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
15	Maceratese	8	−7	7
16	Recanatese	8	−3	6
17	Angelana	8	−7	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4