Foligno Calcio v Real Giulianova prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Foligno Calcio 0–1 Real Giulianova FOLIGNO CALCIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Foligno Calcio win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.714

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Foligno Calcio win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Foligno Calcio 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–31–31
1′KICK-OFF Foligno Calcio v Real Giulianova
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Foligno Calcio win 33%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Foligno Calcio win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
56′We said Foligno Calcio at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–51–23
61′We said Foligno Calcio at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
FTFULL TIME Foligno Calcio 0–1 Real Giulianova
FTFoligno Calcio 0–1 Real Giulianova · Foligno Calcio win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Foligno Calcio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Foligno Calcio 38%, draw 31%, Real Giulianova 31%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Foligno Calcio v Real GiulianovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Foligno Calcio win38%

Draw31%

Real Giulianova win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup F · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Foligno Calcio

Real Giulianova

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Foligno Calcio	7	+3	16
14	Real Giulianova	7	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · foligno calcio winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Foligno Calcio a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Foligno Calcio v Real Giulianova~~1.20 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 7~~3 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Foligno Calcio win	38%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Real Giulianova win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Foligno Calcio or draw	69%	–	–
Foligno Calcio clean sheet	35%	–	–
Real Giulianova clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.0 10.0 5.9 2.1 1 11.4 14.1 6.8 2.5 2 7.5 7.7 4.1 3 3.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Foligno Calcio down, Real Giulianova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,599 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Foligno Calcio at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Real Giulianova away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Foligno Calcio, 1.06 for Real Giulianova. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept

FOLIGNO CALCIO

WLWDWW1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

REAL GIULIANOVA

LDLWWL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	7	+11	17
2	Teramo	7	+8	16
3	Foligno Calcio	7	+3	16
4	Ancona	7	+5	14
5	Vigor Senigallia	7	+3	13
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Lanciano FC	7	+3	10
8	Termoli Calcio	7	0	10
9	Atletico Ascoli	7	−1	10
10	Fossombrone	7	−4	10
11	Santegidiese	7	−2	8
12	Montecchio Gallo	7	−2	8
13	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
14	Real Giulianova	7	−1	7
15	Maceratese	7	−4	7
16	Recanatese	7	−2	6
17	Angelana	7	−5	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4