Atletico Ascoli v Lanciano FC prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Atletico Ascoli 5–1 Lanciano FC ATLETICO ASCOLI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Ascoli win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Ascoli win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Ascoli was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Ascoli v Lanciano FC
2′Atletico Ascoli score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–16–12
2′We published Atletico Ascoli at 45%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–16–12
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Atletico Ascoli 1–0 Lanciano FC
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Atletico Ascoli win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
9′Lanciano FC find the net on 9′. 1–1. 1–1 · 43–29–28
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Atletico Ascoli 1–1 Lanciano FC
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Atletico Ascoli win: 45% at kick-off, 43% now
20′A red card for Lanciano FC on 20′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 42–31–27
20′🟥 RED CARD · 20' Lanciano FC
45′A goal for Atletico Ascoli on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–18–6
45′We published Atletico Ascoli at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–6
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Atletico Ascoli 2–1 Lanciano FC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atletico Ascoli win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Ascoli 2–1 Lanciano FC
46′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 76–18–6
46′SECOND HALF Atletico Ascoli 2–1 Lanciano FC
61′Atletico Ascoli score on 60′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–0
61′We published Atletico Ascoli at 45%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Atletico Ascoli 3–1 Lanciano FC
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Atletico Ascoli win: 45% at kick-off, 96% now
62′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
82′We published Atletico Ascoli at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′Atletico Ascoli find the net on 84′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
85′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Atletico Ascoli 4–1 Lanciano FC
91′A goal for Atletico Ascoli on 90′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
91′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Atletico Ascoli 5–1 Lanciano FC
FTFULL TIME Atletico Ascoli 5–1 Lanciano FC
FTAtletico Ascoli 5–1 Lanciano FC · Atletico Ascoli win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Ascoli are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Ascoli 45%, draw 27%, Lanciano FC 28%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Ascoli v Lanciano FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Ascoli win45%

Draw27%

Lanciano FC win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup F · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Ascoli

Lanciano FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Lanciano FC	7	+3	10
9	Atletico Ascoli	7	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico ascoli winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Atletico Ascoli a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Ascoli v Lanciano FC~~1.52 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~9 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Ascoli win	45%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Lanciano FC win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Atletico Ascoli or draw	72%	–	–
Atletico Ascoli clean sheet	32%	–	–
Lanciano FC clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.3 7.0 4.6 1 9.5 12.9 6.8 2.7 2 7.9 8.9 5.1 2.0 3 4.1 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Ascoli down, Lanciano FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,599 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Atletico Ascoli at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lanciano FC away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Atletico Ascoli, 1.16 for Lanciano FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept

ATLETICO ASCOLI

WDWLLW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–1

LANCIANO FC

DLWWLW0–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	7	+11	17
2	Teramo	7	+8	16
3	Foligno Calcio	7	+3	16
4	Ancona	7	+5	14
5	Vigor Senigallia	7	+3	13
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Lanciano FC	7	+3	10
8	Termoli Calcio	7	0	10
9	Atletico Ascoli	7	−1	10
10	Fossombrone	7	−4	10
11	Santegidiese	7	−2	8
12	Montecchio Gallo	7	−2	8
13	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
14	Real Giulianova	7	−1	7
15	Maceratese	7	−4	7
16	Recanatese	7	−2	6
17	Angelana	7	−5	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4