Angelana v Recanatese prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AngelanaDrawRecanatese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Angelana 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Angelana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Angelana 41%, draw 27%, Recanatese 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Angelana v RecanateseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Angelana win41%

Draw27%

Recanatese win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup F · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Angelana

Recanatese

7Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

Last match: 21 Oct · Coppa Italia Serie D

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Recanatese	8	−3	6
17	Angelana	8	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · angelana winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Angelana a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Angelana v Recanatese~~1.47 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~17 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Angelana win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Recanatese win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Angelana or draw	69%	–	–
Angelana clean sheet	29%	–	–
Recanatese clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.0 7.4 5.2 2.2 1 8.8 12.9 7.3 3.1 2 7.1 8.6 5.3 2.2 3 3.5 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Angelana down, Recanatese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Angelana at home: 1.00 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Recanatese away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Angelana, 1.24 for Recanatese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept

ANGELANA

LLDLLL1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

RECANATESE

WDLLLL4–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	8	+12	20
2	Teramo	8	+9	19
3	Vigor Senigallia	8	+5	16
4	Foligno Calcio	8	+2	16
5	Notaresco	8	+4	14
6	Ancona	8	+4	14
7	Atletico Ascoli	8	+3	13
8	Fossombrone	8	−3	13
9	Montecchio Gallo	8	0	11
10	Real Giulianova	8	0	10
11	Lanciano FC	8	−1	10
12	Termoli Calcio	8	−1	10
13	Santegidiese	8	−4	8
14	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
15	Maceratese	8	−7	7
16	Recanatese	8	−3	6
17	Angelana	8	−7	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4