Angelana v Pietralunga prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Angelana 0–1 Pietralunga ANGELANA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Angelana win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.846

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Angelana win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Angelana v Pietralunga
2′Much as we predicted: Angelana was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
4′Much as we predicted: Angelana was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–26
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Angelana win 36%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Angelana win 36%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Angelana win 36%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Angelana win 36%)
FTFULL TIME Angelana 0–1 Pietralunga
FTAngelana 0–1 Pietralunga · Angelana win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Angelana win44%

Draw31%

Pietralunga win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Angelana

Pietralunga

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · angelana winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Angelana a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Angelana win	44%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Pietralunga win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Angelana or draw	75%	–	–
Angelana clean sheet	41%	–	–
Pietralunga clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 13.0 9.1 4.7 1 13.3 13.8 5.7 2 9.1 8.0 3.6 3 4.0 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Angelana down, Pietralunga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Angelana at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Pietralunga away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Angelana, 0.90 for Pietralunga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F

ANGELANA

WLLLDL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

PIETRALUNGA

DLLLDL0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7
15	Recanatese	7	−2	6
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2