Ancona v Fossombrone prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Ancona 2–3 Fossombrone ANCONA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ancona win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.049

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ancona win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ancona 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–29–18
1′KICK-OFF Ancona v Fossombrone
23′A goal for Fossombrone on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–28–52
23′We said Ancona at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–28–52
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Ancona 0–1 Fossombrone
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Ancona win: 53% at kick-off, 20% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Fossombrone win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Ancona win 20%)
26′We said Ancona at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 18–28–54
31′Ancona score on 31′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 45–38–17
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Ancona 1–1 Fossombrone
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Ancona win: 53% at kick-off, 45% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Ancona win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Fossombrone win 17%)
37′Fossombrone find the net on 36′. 1–2. 1–2 · 15–28–57
37′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 15–28–57
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Ancona 1–2 Fossombrone
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Ancona win: 53% at kick-off, 15% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Fossombrone win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Ancona win 15%)
40′We said Ancona at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–28–58
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Ancona win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Ancona 1–2 Fossombrone
46′SECOND HALF Ancona 1–2 Fossombrone
53′We said Ancona at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–64
67′A goal for Fossombrone on 67′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
67′We said Ancona at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ancona 1–3 Fossombrone
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Ancona win: 53% at kick-off, 1% now
68′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–4–96
78′Ancona score on 78′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 1–14–84
78′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–14–84
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Ancona 2–3 Fossombrone
92′Fossombrone are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–3 · 0–3–97
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Fossombrone
FTFULL TIME Ancona 2–3 Fossombrone
FTAncona 2–3 Fossombrone · Ancona win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ancona are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ancona 53%, draw 29%, Fossombrone 17%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Ancona v FossombroneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ancona win53%

Draw29%

Fossombrone win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup F · matchday 8

VenueStadio del Conero

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ancona

Fossombrone

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ancona	7	+5	14
10	Fossombrone	7	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ancona winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Ancona a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ancona v Fossombrone~~1.43 – 0.70

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ancona win	53%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Fossombrone win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Ancona or draw	83%	–	–
Ancona clean sheet	50%	–	–
Fossombrone clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 13.3 7.4 3.0 1 15.9 12.7 4.1 2 12.0 8.2 2.9 3 5.8 4.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ancona down, Fossombrone across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,599 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ancona at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fossombrone away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Ancona, 0.70 for Fossombrone. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ANC 1–1 FOS · FOS 1–2 ANC · ANC 1–2 FOS · FOS 0–0 ANC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 12 Sept

ANCONA

LWDDWW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

FOSSOMBRONE

LWLDWL0–4 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	7	+11	17
2	Teramo	7	+8	16
3	Foligno Calcio	7	+3	16
4	Ancona	7	+5	14
5	Vigor Senigallia	7	+3	13
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Lanciano FC	7	+3	10
8	Termoli Calcio	7	0	10
9	Atletico Ascoli	7	−1	10
10	Fossombrone	7	−4	10
11	Santegidiese	7	−2	8
12	Montecchio Gallo	7	−2	8
13	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
14	Real Giulianova	7	−1	7
15	Maceratese	7	−4	7
16	Recanatese	7	−2	6
17	Angelana	7	−5	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4