Tau Altopascio v Grassina prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Tau Altopascio 1–1 Grassina TAU ALTOPASCIO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tau Altopascio win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.962

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tau Altopascio win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Tau Altopascio v Grassina
2′Much as we predicted: Tau Altopascio was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–20
4′Much as we predicted: Tau Altopascio was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–20
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Tau Altopascio 1–0 Grassina
23′Tau Altopascio find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Tau Altopascio win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Tau Altopascio win: 58% at kick-off, 58% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Tau Altopascio win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
25′Tau Altopascio find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Tau Altopascio win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Tau Altopascio win: 58% at kick-off, 58% now
41′We published Tau Altopascio at 58%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–5
43′We published Tau Altopascio at 58%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
45′HALF-TIME Tau Altopascio 1–0 Grassina
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Tau Altopascio win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
46′SECOND HALF Tau Altopascio 1–0 Grassina
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Tau Altopascio 1–1 Grassina
FTFULL TIME Tau Altopascio 1–1 Grassina
FTTau Altopascio 1–1 Grassina · Tau Altopascio win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Tau Altopascio win58%

Draw23%

Grassina win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tau Altopascio

Grassina

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tau Altopascio	6	−2	12
17	Grassina	6	−7	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tau altopascio winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Tau Altopascio a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tau Altopascio win	58%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Grassina win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Tau Altopascio or draw	81%	–	–
Tau Altopascio clean sheet	35%	–	–
Grassina clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.9 4.4 2.7 1 8.8 10.7 5.2 2 9.4 9.6 5.0 3 6.2 6.3 3.3 4 3.1 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tau Altopascio down, Grassina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Tau Altopascio at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Grassina away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Tau Altopascio, 1.05 for Grassina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E

TAU ALTOPASCIO

WLWLWW2–1 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–0

GRASSINA

LLDLDL0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 3–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gavorrano	6	+6	14
2	Prato	6	+5	14
3	Lucchese	6	+5	13
4	Tau Altopascio	6	−2	12
5	Scandicci	6	+5	11
6	Flaminia	6	0	11
7	Seravezza	6	+9	10
8	Robur Siena	6	+5	10
9	Ternana	6	+4	8
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	+2	8
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	0	8
12	Montevarchi Calcio	6	−2	7
13	Mezzolara	6	−2	7
14	Rondinella	6	−5	5
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	−5	4
16	Progresso	6	−11	3
17	Grassina	6	−7	2
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	−7	1