Seravezza v Gavorrano prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SeravezzaDrawGavorrano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Seravezza 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Seravezza are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Seravezza 53%, draw 27%, Gavorrano 20%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Seravezza v GavorranoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Seravezza win53%

Draw27%

Gavorrano win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup E · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Seravezza

Gavorrano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Gavorrano	8	+6	16
3	Seravezza	8	+10	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · seravezza winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market43%

Us53%

~~Market~~43%

We make Seravezza a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Seravezza v Gavorrano~~1.57 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~3 v 2

~~The market · Seravezza win~~43% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Seravezza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Seravezza win	53%	43%	+10
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Gavorrano win	20%	29%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Seravezza or draw	80%	71%	+9
Seravezza clean sheet	42%	–	–
Gavorrano clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.8 6.8 3.4 1 12.7 12.6 5.2 2 10.5 9.1 4.0 3 5.6 4.8 2.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Seravezza down, Gavorrano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Seravezza at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gavorrano away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Seravezza, 0.88 for Gavorrano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~GAV 1–1 SER · SER 2–1 GAV · GAV 0–2 SER · SER 1–0 GAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept

SERAVEZZA

DWWLWD1–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

GAVORRANO

WWWDDD1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prato	8	+7	18
2	Gavorrano	8	+6	16
3	Seravezza	8	+10	14
4	Lucchese	8	+3	14
5	Robur Siena	8	+5	13
6	Tau Altopascio	8	−3	13
7	Ternana	8	+5	12
8	Scandicci	8	+4	12
9	Terranuova Traiana	8	+3	12
10	Flaminia	8	−1	12
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	8	−1	11
12	Montevarchi Calcio	8	0	10
13	Mezzolara	8	−2	9
14	Rondinella	8	−4	9
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	8	−3	8
16	Grassina	8	−6	6
17	Progresso	8	−13	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	8	−10	2