Seravezza v Flaminia prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Seravezza 1–0 Flaminia SERAVEZZA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Seravezza win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.311

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Seravezza win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Seravezza v Flaminia
2′Little has changed for our model: Seravezza 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
4′Little has changed for our model: Seravezza 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Seravezza win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Seravezza win: 55% at kick-off, 50% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Seravezza win: 55% at kick-off, 50% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Seravezza win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Seravezza win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Seravezza win: 55% at kick-off, 50% now
45′HALF-TIME Seravezza 0–0 Flaminia
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Seravezza win: 55% at kick-off, 44% now
46′SECOND HALF Seravezza 0–0 Flaminia
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Seravezza 1–0 Flaminia
FTFULL TIME Seravezza 1–0 Flaminia
FTSeravezza 1–0 Flaminia · Seravezza win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Seravezza win55%

Draw25%

Flaminia win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Seravezza

Flaminia

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Flaminia	6	0	11
7	Seravezza	6	+9	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · seravezza winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Seravezza a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Seravezza win	55%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Flaminia win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Seravezza or draw	80%	–	–
Seravezza clean sheet	38%	–	–
Flaminia clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.7 5.6 3.2 1 10.5 11.8 5.4 2 9.8 9.4 4.6 3 5.8 5.6 2.7 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Seravezza down, Flaminia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Seravezza at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Flaminia away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Seravezza, 0.98 for Flaminia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SER 2–4 FLA · FLA 1–1 SER · SER 2–2 FLA · FLA 2–1 SER

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E

SERAVEZZA

LWDWWL1–2 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

FLAMINIA

WWDLWD2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gavorrano	6	+6	14
2	Prato	6	+5	14
3	Lucchese	6	+5	13
4	Tau Altopascio	6	−2	12
5	Scandicci	6	+5	11
6	Flaminia	6	0	11
7	Seravezza	6	+9	10
8	Robur Siena	6	+5	10
9	Ternana	6	+4	8
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	+2	8
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	0	8
12	Montevarchi Calcio	6	−2	7
13	Mezzolara	6	−2	7
14	Rondinella	6	−5	5
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	−5	4
16	Progresso	6	−11	3
17	Grassina	6	−7	2
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	−7	1