Scandicci v Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Scandicci 3–3 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano SCANDICCI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Scandicci win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.853

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 2 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Scandicci win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Scandicci v Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
2′Little has changed for our model: Scandicci 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
4′Little has changed for our model: Scandicci 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
FTFULL TIME Scandicci 3–3 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
FTScandicci 3–3 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano · Scandicci win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Scandicci win51%

Draw26%

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Scandicci

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Scandicci	6	+5	11
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	−7	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · scandicci winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Scandicci a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Scandicci win	51%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Scandicci or draw	78%	–	–
Scandicci clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.4 6.3 3.6 1 10.8 12.4 5.8 2 9.5 9.3 4.6 3 5.2 5.1 2.6 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Scandicci down, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Scandicci at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Scandicci, 1.00 for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GHI 1–1 SCA · SCA 2–0 GHI

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E

SCANDICCI

DLWWDW1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–0

GHIVIZZANO BORGO MOZZANO

LLLDLL0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gavorrano	6	+6	14
2	Prato	6	+5	14
3	Lucchese	6	+5	13
4	Tau Altopascio	6	−2	12
5	Scandicci	6	+5	11
6	Flaminia	6	0	11
7	Seravezza	6	+9	10
8	Robur Siena	6	+5	10
9	Ternana	6	+4	8
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	+2	8
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	0	8
12	Montevarchi Calcio	6	−2	7
13	Mezzolara	6	−2	7
14	Rondinella	6	−5	5
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	−5	4
16	Progresso	6	−11	3
17	Grassina	6	−7	2
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	−7	1