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Sasso Marconi Zola v Lucchese
Sasso Marconi Zola
LuccheseSerie D - Girone E · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Lucchese win at 40%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Lucchese 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
- 1′KICK-OFF Sasso Marconi Zola v Lucchese
- 45′HALF-TIME Sasso Marconi Zola 0–0 Lucchese
- 46′SECOND HALF Sasso Marconi Zola 0–0 Lucchese
- 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lucchese win 33%)
- 54′A goal for Sasso Marconi Zola on 54′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–9
- 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Sasso Marconi Zola 1–0 Lucchese
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Lucchese win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
- 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Sasso Marconi Zola win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
- 55′We said Lucchese at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
- 66′Sasso Marconi Zola score on 65′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–5–1
- 66′We said Lucchese at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Sasso Marconi Zola 2–0 Lucchese
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Lucchese win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
- 74′Sasso Marconi Zola are down to ten from 74′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 97–3–0
- 74′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Sasso Marconi Zola
- FTFULL TIME Sasso Marconi Zola 2–0 Lucchese
- FTSasso Marconi Zola 2–0 Lucchese · Lucchese win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Lucchese are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sasso Marconi Zola 35%, draw 24%, Lucchese 40%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Sasso Marconi Zola win35%
Lucchese win40%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00
RoundGroup E · matchday 8
Match timeline
All events
Sasso Marconi ZolaMIN
LuccheseEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sasso Marconi Zola
Lucchese
Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E
Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Lucchese a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sasso Marconi Zola win | 35% | – | – |
| Draw | 24% | – | – |
| Lucchese win | 40% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 65% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | – | – |
| Sasso Marconi Zola or draw | 60% | – | – |
| Sasso Marconi Zola clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
| Lucchese clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2025/26No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept
SASSO MARCONI ZOLA
LUCCHESE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 7 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 7 | +6 | 15 |
| 3 | Lucchese | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Seravezza | 7 | +10 | 13 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 7 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 7 | −2 | 13 |
| 7 | Scandicci | 7 | +5 | 12 |
| 8 | Flaminia | 7 | −1 | 11 |
| 9 | Ternana | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 | Terranuova Traiana | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 7 | −2 | 8 |
| 12 | Mezzolara | 7 | −2 | 8 |
| 13 | Rondinella | 7 | −4 | 8 |
| 14 | Montevarchi Calcio | 7 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 7 | −5 | 5 |
| 16 | Grassina | 7 | −7 | 3 |
| 17 | Progresso | 7 | −12 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 7 | −7 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Prato
Gavorrano
Seravezza
Robur Siena
Tau Altopascio
Scandicci
Flaminia
Ternana
Terranuova Traiana
San Donato Tavarnelle
Mezzolara
Rondinella
Montevarchi Calcio
Grassina
Progresso
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano