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Sasso Marconi Zola v Lucchese

Sasso Marconi Zola
2–0Full time
Lucchese

Serie D - Girone E · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Sasso Marconi Zola 2–0 Lucchese LUCCHESE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lucchese win40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.638

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lucchese win at 40%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Lucchese 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sasso Marconi Zola v Lucchese
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Sasso Marconi Zola 0–0 Lucchese
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Sasso Marconi Zola 0–0 Lucchese
  6. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lucchese win 33%)
  7. 54′A goal for Sasso Marconi Zola on 54′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  8. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Sasso Marconi Zola 1–0 Lucchese
  9. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Lucchese win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
  10. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Sasso Marconi Zola win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
  11. 55′We said Lucchese at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  12. 66′Sasso Marconi Zola score on 65′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  13. 66′We said Lucchese at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  14. 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Sasso Marconi Zola 2–0 Lucchese
  15. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Lucchese win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
  16. 74′Sasso Marconi Zola are down to ten from 74′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  17. 74′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Sasso Marconi Zola
  18. FTFULL TIME Sasso Marconi Zola 2–0 Lucchese
  19. FTSasso Marconi Zola 2–0 Lucchese · Lucchese win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lucchese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sasso Marconi Zola 35%, draw 24%, Lucchese 40%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Sasso Marconi Zola v LuccheseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sasso Marconi Zola win35%
Draw24%
Lucchese win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup E · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sasso Marconi Zola

Lucchese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Lucchese7+514
15Sasso Marconi Zola7−55

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lucchese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market–
Us40%

We make Lucchese a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sasso Marconi Zola v Lucchese1.58 – 1.70
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 SeptW0 D2 L4 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 5 v 1415 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sasso Marconi Zola win35%––
Draw24%––
Lucchese win40%––
Over 2.5 goals63%––
Both teams to score65%––
Over 1.5 goals84%––
Over 3.5 goals41%––
Sasso Marconi Zola or draw60%––
Sasso Marconi Zola clean sheet19%––
Lucchese clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 4.9 5.8 5.5 3.1 1 5.4 10.7 8.3 4.7 2.1 2 4.8 7.8 6.5 3.7 3 2.5 4.1 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sasso Marconi Zola down, Lucchese across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept

SASSO MARCONI ZOLA

LDLLLD1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2

LUCCHESE

LWDWWD0–5 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 6–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Prato7+717
2Gavorrano7+615
3Lucchese7+514
4Seravezza7+1013
5Robur Siena7+613
6Tau Altopascio7−213
7Scandicci7+512
8Flaminia7−111
9Ternana7+49
10Terranuova Traiana7+29
11San Donato Tavarnelle7−28
12Mezzolara7−28
13Rondinella7−48
14Montevarchi Calcio7−37
15Sasso Marconi Zola7−55
16Grassina7−73
17Progresso7−123
18Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano7−72

The competition's standings before kick-off.