Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Serie D - Girone E › San Donato Tavarnelle v Tau Altopascio

Back
Italy flag

San Donato Tavarnelle v Tau Altopascio

San Donato Tavarnelle
1–0Full time
Tau Altopascio

Serie D - Girone E · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Tau Altopascio TAU ALTOPASCIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tau Altopascio win35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.654

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tau Altopascio win at 35%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Tau Altopascio was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 34–31–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF San Donato Tavarnelle v Tau Altopascio
  4. 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Tau Altopascio win 32%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME San Donato Tavarnelle 0–0 Tau Altopascio
  6. 46′SECOND HALF San Donato Tavarnelle 0–0 Tau Altopascio
  7. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Tau Altopascio win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
  8. 59′We said Tau Altopascio at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–23
  9. 64′San Donato Tavarnelle find the net on 64′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–3
  10. 64′We said Tau Altopascio at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 79–18–3
  11. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Tau Altopascio
  12. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Tau Altopascio win: 35% at kick-off, 3% now
  13. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' San Donato Tavarnelle win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
  14. FTFULL TIME San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Tau Altopascio
  15. FTSan Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Tau Altopascio · Tau Altopascio win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Tau Altopascio just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: San Donato Tavarnelle 34%, draw 31%, Tau Altopascio 35%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on San Donato Tavarnelle v Tau AltopascioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

San Donato Tavarnelle win34%
Draw31%
Tau Altopascio win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup E · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Donato Tavarnelle

Tau Altopascio

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Tau Altopascio7−213
11San Donato Tavarnelle7−28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tau altopascio winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
35% The market–
Us35%

We make Tau Altopascio a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · San Donato Tavarnelle v Tau Altopascio1.10 – 1.13
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 8 v 1311 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
San Donato Tavarnelle win34%––
Draw31%––
Tau Altopascio win35%––
Over 2.5 goals39%––
Both teams to score46%––
Over 1.5 goals66%––
Over 3.5 goals19%––
San Donato Tavarnelle or draw65%––
San Donato Tavarnelle clean sheet33%––
Tau Altopascio clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%
0123450 12.1 11.1 6.8 2.6 1 10.9 14.0 7.3 2.8 2 6.5 7.2 4.0 3 2.5 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+San Donato Tavarnelle down, Tau Altopascio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsSAN 2–2 TAU · TAU 3–0 SAN · TAU 1–1 SAN · SAN 1–2 TAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept

SAN DONATO TAVARNELLE

WDLLDL3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

TAU ALTOPASCIO

LWLWWD1–4 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Prato7+717
2Gavorrano7+615
3Lucchese7+514
4Seravezza7+1013
5Robur Siena7+613
6Tau Altopascio7−213
7Scandicci7+512
8Flaminia7−111
9Ternana7+49
10Terranuova Traiana7+29
11San Donato Tavarnelle7−28
12Mezzolara7−28
13Rondinella7−48
14Montevarchi Calcio7−37
15Sasso Marconi Zola7−55
16Grassina7−73
17Progresso7−123
18Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano7−72

The competition's standings before kick-off.