Robur Siena v Rondinella prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Robur SienaDrawRondinella

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Robur Siena 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Robur Siena are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Robur Siena 58%, draw 24%, Rondinella 18%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Robur Siena v RondinellaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Robur Siena win58%

Draw24%

Rondinella win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup E · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Robur Siena

Rondinella

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Robur Siena	8	+5	13
14	Rondinella	8	−4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · robur siena winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Robur Siena a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Robur Siena v Rondinella~~1.89 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~5 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Robur Siena win	58%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Rondinella win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Robur Siena or draw	82%	–	–
Robur Siena clean sheet	39%	–	–
Rondinella clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.9 4.9 2.7 1 10.4 11.1 4.9 2 10.3 9.6 4.6 3 6.5 6.0 2.9 4 3.1 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Robur Siena down, Rondinella across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Robur Siena at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rondinella away: 0.75 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Robur Siena, 0.95 for Rondinella. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept

ROBUR SIENA

LWLWWL2–3 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

RONDINELLA

LDLWWD0–3 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prato	8	+7	18
2	Gavorrano	8	+6	16
3	Seravezza	8	+10	14
4	Lucchese	8	+3	14
5	Robur Siena	8	+5	13
6	Tau Altopascio	8	−3	13
7	Ternana	8	+5	12
8	Scandicci	8	+4	12
9	Terranuova Traiana	8	+3	12
10	Flaminia	8	−1	12
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	8	−1	11
12	Montevarchi Calcio	8	0	10
13	Mezzolara	8	−2	9
14	Rondinella	8	−4	9
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	8	−3	8
16	Grassina	8	−6	6
17	Progresso	8	−13	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	8	−10	2