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Progresso v Ternana
ProgressoTernanaSerie D - Girone E · SUN 25 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Ternana are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Progresso 27%, draw 28%, Ternana 45%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Progresso win27%Ternana win45%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30
RoundGroup E · matchday 9
Match timeline
All events
ProgressoMINTernanaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Progresso
Ternana
Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone E
Last match: 21 Oct · Coppa Italia Serie D
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ternana | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 17 | Progresso | 8 | −13 | 3 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Ternana a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progresso win | 27% | 16% | +11 |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | +4 |
| Ternana win | 45% | 61% | −16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 30% | −4 |
| Progresso or draw | 55% | 39% | +16 |
| Progresso clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
| Ternana clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept
PROGRESSO
TERNANA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 8 | +7 | 18 |
| 2 |  Gavorrano | 8 | +6 | 16 |
| 3 |  Seravezza | 8 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 |  Lucchese | 8 | +3 | 14 |
| 5 |  Robur Siena | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 |  Tau Altopascio | 8 | −3 | 13 |
| 7 | Ternana | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 8 |  Scandicci | 8 | +4 | 12 |
| 9 |  Terranuova Traiana | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 10 |  Flaminia | 8 | −1 | 12 |
| 11 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 8 | −1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 |  Mezzolara | 8 | −2 | 9 |
| 14 |  Rondinella | 8 | −4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 8 | −3 | 8 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 8 | −6 | 6 |
| 17 | Progresso | 8 | −13 | 3 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 8 | −10 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.