Progresso v Robur Siena prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Progresso 0–1 Robur Siena ROBUR SIENA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Robur Siena win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.313

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Robur Siena win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF Progresso v Robur Siena
2′Much as we predicted: Robur Siena was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 23–22–55
4′Much as we predicted: Robur Siena was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 23–22–55
45′HALF-TIME Progresso 0–0 Robur Siena
46′SECOND HALF Progresso 0–0 Robur Siena
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Progresso
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Progresso 0–1 Robur Siena
89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Robur Siena
90′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Robur Siena
90′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Progresso
90′⚽ GOAL · 76' Progresso 0–1 Robur Siena
FTFULL TIME Progresso 0–1 Robur Siena
FTProgresso 0–1 Robur Siena · Robur Siena win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Progresso win22%

Draw23%

Robur Siena win54%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Progresso

Robur Siena

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Robur Siena	6	+5	10
16	Progresso	6	−11	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · robur siena winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Robur Siena a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Progresso win	22%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Robur Siena win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Progresso or draw	46%	–	–
Progresso clean sheet	15%	–	–
Robur Siena clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.4 7.7 8.2 5.4 2.7 1 4.4 10.7 9.5 6.2 3.1 2 3.1 5.8 5.6 3.6 3 2.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Progresso down, Robur Siena across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Progresso at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Robur Siena away: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Progresso, 1.96 for Robur Siena. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E

PROGRESSO

LWLLLL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2

ROBUR SIENA

DWLWLW1–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gavorrano	6	+6	14
2	Prato	6	+5	14
3	Lucchese	6	+5	13
4	Tau Altopascio	6	−2	12
5	Scandicci	6	+5	11
6	Flaminia	6	0	11
7	Seravezza	6	+9	10
8	Robur Siena	6	+5	10
9	Ternana	6	+4	8
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	+2	8
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	0	8
12	Montevarchi Calcio	6	−2	7
13	Mezzolara	6	−2	7
14	Rondinella	6	−5	5
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	−5	4
16	Progresso	6	−11	3
17	Grassina	6	−7	2
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	−7	1