Prato v San Donato Tavarnelle prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Prato 2–0 San Donato Tavarnelle PRATO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Prato win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Prato win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Prato v San Donato Tavarnelle
3′Much as we predicted: Prato was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–30–22
4′Much as we predicted: Prato was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–30–22
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Prato 1–0 San Donato Tavarnelle
23′12′ and it is 1–0: Prato have scored. 1–0 · 79–16–5
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Prato win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Prato win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Prato win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
25′12′ and it is 1–0: Prato have scored. 1–0 · 79–16–5
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Prato win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Prato win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
41′We published Prato at 48%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
43′We published Prato at 48%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–3
45′HALF-TIME Prato 1–0 San Donato Tavarnelle
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Prato win: 48% at kick-off, 81% now
46′SECOND HALF Prato 1–0 San Donato Tavarnelle
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Prato 2–0 San Donato Tavarnelle
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Prato 3–0 San Donato Tavarnelle
FTFULL TIME Prato 2–0 San Donato Tavarnelle
FTPrato 2–0 San Donato Tavarnelle · Prato win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Prato win48%

Draw31%

San Donato Tavarnelle win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Prato

San Donato Tavarnelle

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Prato	6	+5	14
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	0	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · prato winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Prato a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Prato win	48%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
San Donato Tavarnelle win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Prato or draw	79%	–	–
Prato clean sheet	48%	–	–
San Donato Tavarnelle clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 14.6 9.0 3.7 1 15.8 13.3 4.6 2 10.6 7.8 2.9 3 4.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Prato down, San Donato Tavarnelle across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Prato at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). San Donato Tavarnelle away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Prato, 0.75 for San Donato Tavarnelle. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PRA 1–0 SAN · SAN 0–2 PRA

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E

PRATO

WWDWWD1–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

SAN DONATO TAVARNELLE

WWDLLD2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gavorrano	6	+6	14
2	Prato	6	+5	14
3	Lucchese	6	+5	13
4	Tau Altopascio	6	−2	12
5	Scandicci	6	+5	11
6	Flaminia	6	0	11
7	Seravezza	6	+9	10
8	Robur Siena	6	+5	10
9	Ternana	6	+4	8
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	+2	8
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	0	8
12	Montevarchi Calcio	6	−2	7
13	Mezzolara	6	−2	7
14	Rondinella	6	−5	5
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	−5	4
16	Progresso	6	−11	3
17	Grassina	6	−7	2
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	−7	1