Montevarchi Calcio v Grassina prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Montevarchi CalcioDrawGrassina

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Montevarchi Calcio 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Montevarchi Calcio are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Montevarchi Calcio 46%, draw 29%, Grassina 25%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Montevarchi Calcio v GrassinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Montevarchi Calcio win46%

Draw29%

Grassina win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup E · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Montevarchi Calcio

Grassina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Montevarchi Calcio	8	0	10
16	Grassina	8	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · montevarchi calcio winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Montevarchi Calcio a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Montevarchi Calcio v Grassina~~1.37 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~12 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montevarchi Calcio win	46%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Grassina win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Montevarchi Calcio or draw	75%	–	–
Montevarchi Calcio clean sheet	40%	–	–
Grassina clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.4 8.5 4.4 1 12.9 13.4 5.8 2 9.4 8.5 3.9 3 4.3 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montevarchi Calcio down, Grassina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Montevarchi Calcio at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Grassina away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Montevarchi Calcio, 0.92 for Grassina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept

MONTEVARCHI CALCIO

DLWLLW1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 3–0

GRASSINA

DLDLDW1–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 3–6 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prato	8	+7	18
2	Gavorrano	8	+6	16
3	Seravezza	8	+10	14
4	Lucchese	8	+3	14
5	Robur Siena	8	+5	13
6	Tau Altopascio	8	−3	13
7	Ternana	8	+5	12
8	Scandicci	8	+4	12
9	Terranuova Traiana	8	+3	12
10	Flaminia	8	−1	12
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	8	−1	11
12	Montevarchi Calcio	8	0	10
13	Mezzolara	8	−2	9
14	Rondinella	8	−4	9
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	8	−3	8
16	Grassina	8	−6	6
17	Progresso	8	−13	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	8	−10	2