Mezzolara v Terranuova Traiana prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MezzolaraDrawTerranuova Traiana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Mezzolara 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mezzolara are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mezzolara 38%, draw 32%, Terranuova Traiana 31%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Mezzolara v Terranuova TraianaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Mezzolara win38%

Draw32%

Terranuova Traiana win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup E · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mezzolara

Terranuova Traiana

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Terranuova Traiana	8	+3	12
13	Mezzolara	8	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mezzolara winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market38%

Us38%

~~Market~~38%

We make Mezzolara a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mezzolara v Terranuova Traiana~~1.12 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D5 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~13 v 9

~~The market · Mezzolara win~~38% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mezzolara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mezzolara win	38%	38%	0
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Terranuova Traiana win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	35%	44%	−9
Both teams to score	42%	50%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	25%	−9
Mezzolara or draw	69%	69%	0
Mezzolara clean sheet	38%	–	–
Terranuova Traiana clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.6 11.1 5.9 1 12.7 14.1 6.4 2.1 2 7.6 7.3 3.6 3 2.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mezzolara down, Terranuova Traiana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Mezzolara at home: 1.00 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Terranuova Traiana away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Mezzolara, 0.98 for Terranuova Traiana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept

MEZZOLARA

WDDDDD2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

TERRANUOVA TRAIANA

DWLDDW1–1 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prato	8	+7	18
2	Gavorrano	8	+6	16
3	Seravezza	8	+10	14
4	Lucchese	8	+3	14
5	Robur Siena	8	+5	13
6	Tau Altopascio	8	−3	13
7	Ternana	8	+5	12
8	Scandicci	8	+4	12
9	Terranuova Traiana	8	+3	12
10	Flaminia	8	−1	12
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	8	−1	11
12	Montevarchi Calcio	8	0	10
13	Mezzolara	8	−2	9
14	Rondinella	8	−4	9
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	8	−3	8
16	Grassina	8	−6	6
17	Progresso	8	−13	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	8	−10	2