Mezzolara v Sasso Marconi Zola prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Mezzolara 2–2 Sasso Marconi Zola MEZZOLARA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mezzolara win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.775

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mezzolara win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Mezzolara v Sasso Marconi Zola
2′Much as we predicted: Mezzolara was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–28
4′Much as we predicted: Mezzolara was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
45′⚽ GOAL · 58' Mezzolara 1–0 Sasso Marconi Zola
45′HALF-TIME Mezzolara 1–0 Sasso Marconi Zola
46′SECOND HALF Mezzolara 1–0 Sasso Marconi Zola
88′⚽ GOAL · 58' Mezzolara 1–0 Sasso Marconi Zola
90′⚽ GOAL · 97' Mezzolara 2–2 Sasso Marconi Zola
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Mezzolara 2–2 Sasso Marconi Zola
FTFULL TIME Mezzolara 2–2 Sasso Marconi Zola
FTMezzolara 2–2 Sasso Marconi Zola · Mezzolara win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mezzolara win44%

Draw29%

Sasso Marconi Zola win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mezzolara

Sasso Marconi Zola

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Mezzolara	6	−2	7
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mezzolara winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Mezzolara a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mezzolara win	44%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Sasso Marconi Zola win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Mezzolara or draw	72%	–	–
Mezzolara clean sheet	35%	–	–
Sasso Marconi Zola clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.9 8.1 4.8 1 11.0 13.4 6.5 2.4 2 8.3 8.6 4.5 3 3.9 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mezzolara down, Sasso Marconi Zola across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mezzolara at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Sasso Marconi Zola away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Mezzolara, 1.06 for Sasso Marconi Zola. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E

MEZZOLARA

DLWDDD0–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

SASSO MARCONI ZOLA

WLDLLL2–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gavorrano	6	+6	14
2	Prato	6	+5	14
3	Lucchese	6	+5	13
4	Tau Altopascio	6	−2	12
5	Scandicci	6	+5	11
6	Flaminia	6	0	11
7	Seravezza	6	+9	10
8	Robur Siena	6	+5	10
9	Ternana	6	+4	8
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	+2	8
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	0	8
12	Montevarchi Calcio	6	−2	7
13	Mezzolara	6	−2	7
14	Rondinella	6	−5	5
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	−5	4
16	Progresso	6	−11	3
17	Grassina	6	−7	2
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	−7	1