Lucchese v Ternana prediction · Serie D - Girone E

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Lucchese 2–2 Ternana LUCCHESE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lucchese win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lucchese win at 44%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Lucchese 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
4′Little has changed for our model: Lucchese 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
38′Ternana find the net on 25′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Ternana win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Lucchese win 4%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lucchese win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Lucchese 2–2 Ternana
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Lucchese 2–2 Ternana
FTFULL TIME Lucchese 2–2 Ternana
FTLucchese 2–2 Ternana · Lucchese win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lucchese win44%

Draw25%

Ternana win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenuePorta Elisa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lucchese

Ternana

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Lucchese	6	+5	13
9	Ternana	6	+4	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lucchese winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Lucchese a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lucchese win	44%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Ternana win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Lucchese or draw	69%	–	–
Lucchese clean sheet	27%	–	–
Ternana clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.1 5.9 4.5 2.1 1 7.4 11.7 7.2 3.3 2 6.8 8.9 5.9 2.7 3 3.8 5.0 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lucchese down, Ternana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Lucchese at home: 3.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Ternana away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Lucchese, 1.35 for Ternana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E

LUCCHESE

WLWDWW2–1 · 0–5 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 6–3

TERNANA

LDLWDW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gavorrano	6	+6	14
2	Prato	6	+5	14
3	Lucchese	6	+5	13
4	Tau Altopascio	6	−2	12
5	Scandicci	6	+5	11
6	Flaminia	6	0	11
7	Seravezza	6	+9	10
8	Robur Siena	6	+5	10
9	Ternana	6	+4	8
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	+2	8
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	0	8
12	Montevarchi Calcio	6	−2	7
13	Mezzolara	6	−2	7
14	Rondinella	6	−5	5
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	−5	4
16	Progresso	6	−11	3
17	Grassina	6	−7	2
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	−7	1