Lucchese v Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LuccheseDrawGhivizzano Borgo Mozzano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lucchese 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lucchese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lucchese 52%, draw 22%, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 25%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Lucchese v Ghivizzano Borgo MozzanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lucchese win52%

Draw22%

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup E · matchday 9

VenuePorta Elisa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lucchese

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lucchese	8	+3	14
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	8	−10	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lucchese winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Lucchese a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lucchese v Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano~~2.09 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 2~~4 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lucchese win	52%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Lucchese or draw	75%	–	–
Lucchese clean sheet	25%	–	–
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.9 3.7 3.1 1 5.8 9.5 6.2 2.9 2 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.6 6.3 4.4 2.1 4 2.4 3.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lucchese down, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Lucchese at home: 3.00 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Lucchese, 1.42 for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 16 Sept

LUCCHESE

WDWWDL5–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 6–3 · 2–2 · 0–2

GHIVIZZANO BORGO MOZZANO

LDLLDL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prato	8	+7	18
2	Gavorrano	8	+6	16
3	Seravezza	8	+10	14
4	Lucchese	8	+3	14
5	Robur Siena	8	+5	13
6	Tau Altopascio	8	−3	13
7	Ternana	8	+5	12
8	Scandicci	8	+4	12
9	Terranuova Traiana	8	+3	12
10	Flaminia	8	−1	12
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	8	−1	11
12	Montevarchi Calcio	8	0	10
13	Mezzolara	8	−2	9
14	Rondinella	8	−4	9
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	8	−3	8
16	Grassina	8	−6	6
17	Progresso	8	−13	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	8	−10	2