Grassina v Progresso prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Grassina 1–0 Progresso GRASSINA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grassina win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.426

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grassina win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Grassina was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–27
1′KICK-OFF Grassina v Progresso
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Grassina win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Grassina win 36%)
50′We said Grassina at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–42–23
53′We said Grassina at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 33–45–22
62′We said Grassina at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
FTFULL TIME Grassina 1–0 Progresso
FTGrassina 1–0 Progresso · Grassina win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grassina are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grassina 47%, draw 27%, Progresso 27%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Grassina v ProgressoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Grassina win47%

Draw27%

Progresso win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup E · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grassina

Progresso

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Grassina	7	−7	3
17	Progresso	7	−12	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grassina winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Grassina a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grassina v Progresso~~1.59 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~16 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grassina win	47%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Progresso win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Grassina or draw	73%	–	–
Grassina clean sheet	32%	–	–
Progresso clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.8 6.7 4.3 1 9.5 12.4 6.6 2.6 2 8.2 9.1 5.2 2.0 3 4.4 4.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grassina down, Progresso across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Grassina at home: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 3). Progresso away: 0.50 scored, 2.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Grassina, 1.14 for Progresso. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept

GRASSINA

LDLDLD0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 3–6 · 1–1

PROGRESSO

WLLLLL2–1 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prato	7	+7	17
2	Gavorrano	7	+6	15
3	Lucchese	7	+5	14
4	Seravezza	7	+10	13
5	Robur Siena	7	+6	13
6	Tau Altopascio	7	−2	13
7	Scandicci	7	+5	12
8	Flaminia	7	−1	11
9	Ternana	7	+4	9
10	Terranuova Traiana	7	+2	9
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	7	−2	8
12	Mezzolara	7	−2	8
13	Rondinella	7	−4	8
14	Montevarchi Calcio	7	−3	7
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	7	−5	5
16	Grassina	7	−7	3
17	Progresso	7	−12	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	7	−7	2