Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano v Montevarchi Calcio prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–3 Montevarchi Calcio GHIVIZZANO BORGO MOZZANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.722

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
1′KICK-OFF Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano v Montevarchi Calcio
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–0 Montevarchi Calcio
46′SECOND HALF Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–0 Montevarchi Calcio
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′Montevarchi Calcio find the net on 55′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–1 Montevarchi Calcio
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Montevarchi Calcio win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
56′We said Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
65′We said Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
65′A goal for Montevarchi Calcio on 65′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
65′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–96
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–2 Montevarchi Calcio
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′Montevarchi Calcio score on 86′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
87′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–3 Montevarchi Calcio
FTFULL TIME Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–3 Montevarchi Calcio
FTGhivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–3 Montevarchi Calcio · Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 40%, draw 29%, Montevarchi Calcio 31%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano v Montevarchi CalcioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win40%

Draw29%

Montevarchi Calcio win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup E · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano

Montevarchi Calcio

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Montevarchi Calcio	7	−3	7
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	7	−7	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ghivizzano borgo mozzano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano v Montevarchi Calcio~~1.36 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 7~~18 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Montevarchi Calcio win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano or draw	69%	–	–
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano clean sheet	32%	–	–
Montevarchi Calcio clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.4 8.5 5.4 2.1 1 10.1 13.4 7.2 2.8 2 7.5 8.4 4.8 3 3.4 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano down, Montevarchi Calcio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Montevarchi Calcio away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano, 1.15 for Montevarchi Calcio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MON 1–0 GHI · GHI 0–2 MON · GHI 0–1 MON · MON 0–1 GHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept

GHIVIZZANO BORGO MOZZANO

LLDLLD1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–3

MONTEVARCHI CALCIO

WDLWLL4–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prato	7	+7	17
2	Gavorrano	7	+6	15
3	Lucchese	7	+5	14
4	Seravezza	7	+10	13
5	Robur Siena	7	+6	13
6	Tau Altopascio	7	−2	13
7	Scandicci	7	+5	12
8	Flaminia	7	−1	11
9	Ternana	7	+4	9
10	Terranuova Traiana	7	+2	9
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	7	−2	8
12	Mezzolara	7	−2	8
13	Rondinella	7	−4	8
14	Montevarchi Calcio	7	−3	7
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	7	−5	5
16	Grassina	7	−7	3
17	Progresso	7	−12	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	7	−7	2