Gavorrano v Terranuova Traiana prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Gavorrano 1–1 Terranuova Traiana GAVORRANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Gavorrano win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gavorrano win at 42%.
2′Much as we predicted: Gavorrano was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–28
4′Much as we predicted: Gavorrano was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–28
38′A goal for Terranuova Traiana on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–65
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Terranuova Traiana win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Gavorrano win 11%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gavorrano win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
45′HALF-TIME Gavorrano 1–1 Terranuova Traiana
46′SECOND HALF Gavorrano 1–1 Terranuova Traiana
FTFULL TIME Gavorrano 1–1 Terranuova Traiana
FTGavorrano 1–1 Terranuova Traiana · Gavorrano win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gavorrano win42%

Draw30%

Terranuova Traiana win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gavorrano

Terranuova Traiana

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gavorrano	6	+6	14
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	+2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gavorrano winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Gavorrano a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gavorrano win	42%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Terranuova Traiana win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Gavorrano or draw	72%	–	–
Gavorrano clean sheet	38%	–	–
Terranuova Traiana clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 12.1 9.4 5.1 1 12.5 13.9 6.3 2.1 2 8.5 8.1 3.9 3 3.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gavorrano down, Terranuova Traiana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gavorrano at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Terranuova Traiana away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Gavorrano, 0.97 for Terranuova Traiana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TER 1–0 GAV · GAV 0–1 TER · GAV 2–2 TER · TER 0–0 GAV

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E

GAVORRANO

WDWWWD2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

TERRANUOVA TRAIANA

LWDWLD1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gavorrano	6	+6	14
2	Prato	6	+5	14
3	Lucchese	6	+5	13
4	Tau Altopascio	6	−2	12
5	Scandicci	6	+5	11
6	Flaminia	6	0	11
7	Seravezza	6	+9	10
8	Robur Siena	6	+5	10
9	Ternana	6	+4	8
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	+2	8
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	0	8
12	Montevarchi Calcio	6	−2	7
13	Mezzolara	6	−2	7
14	Rondinella	6	−5	5
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	−5	4
16	Progresso	6	−11	3
17	Grassina	6	−7	2
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	−7	1