Gavorrano v Prato prediction · Serie D - Girone E

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Gavorrano 1–1 Prato PRATO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Prato win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Prato win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Prato was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 31–30–39
1′KICK-OFF Gavorrano v Prato
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Prato win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Gavorrano 0–0 Prato
46′SECOND HALF Gavorrano 0–0 Prato
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Prato win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′We said Prato at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 23–49–27
62′Gavorrano score on 62′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–20–4
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Gavorrano 1–0 Prato
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Prato win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Gavorrano win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
63′We said Prato at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
64′Prato find the net on 63′. 1–1. 1–1 · 20–57–23
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Gavorrano 1–1 Prato
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Prato win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Gavorrano win 20%)
65′We said Prato at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 19–58–23
65′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 19–58–23
71′We said Prato at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Prato win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
77′We said Prato at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
83′We said Prato at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Prato win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
FTFULL TIME Gavorrano 1–1 Prato
FTGavorrano 1–1 Prato · Prato win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Prato are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gavorrano 31%, draw 30%, Prato 39%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Gavorrano v PratoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gavorrano win31%

Draw30%

Prato win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup E · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gavorrano

Prato

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · prato winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Prato a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gavorrano v Prato~~1.08 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 17~~2 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gavorrano win	31%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Prato win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Gavorrano or draw	61%	–	–
Gavorrano clean sheet	29%	–	–
Prato clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.1 11.2 7.5 3.2 1 9.6 13.8 8.0 3.4 2 5.7 6.9 4.3 3 2.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gavorrano down, Prato across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gavorrano at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Prato away: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Gavorrano, 1.25 for Prato. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GAV 2–1 PRA · PRA 2–0 GAV · PRA 1–2 GAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept

GAVORRANO

DWWWDD1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

PRATO

WDWWDW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prato	7	+7	17
2	Gavorrano	7	+6	15
3	Lucchese	7	+5	14
4	Seravezza	7	+10	13
5	Robur Siena	7	+6	13
6	Tau Altopascio	7	−2	13
7	Scandicci	7	+5	12
8	Flaminia	7	−1	11
9	Ternana	7	+4	9
10	Terranuova Traiana	7	+2	9
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	7	−2	8
12	Mezzolara	7	−2	8
13	Rondinella	7	−4	8
14	Montevarchi Calcio	7	−3	7
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	7	−5	5
16	Grassina	7	−7	3
17	Progresso	7	−12	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	7	−7	2