Flaminia v Mezzolara prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Flaminia 1–1 Mezzolara FLAMINIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Flaminia win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flaminia win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Flaminia 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Flaminia v Mezzolara
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Flaminia win 36%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Flaminia win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
52′We said Flaminia at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–45–22
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–47–21
59′We said Flaminia at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
FTFULL TIME Flaminia 1–1 Mezzolara
FTFlaminia 1–1 Mezzolara · Flaminia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flaminia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flaminia 45%, draw 28%, Mezzolara 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Flaminia v MezzolaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Flaminia win45%

Draw28%

Mezzolara win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup E · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flaminia

Mezzolara

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Flaminia	7	−1	11
12	Mezzolara	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flaminia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Flaminia a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Flaminia v Mezzolara~~1.45 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~8 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flaminia win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Mezzolara win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Flaminia or draw	73%	–	–
Flaminia clean sheet	35%	–	–
Mezzolara clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.5 7.8 4.7 1 10.8 13.1 6.5 2.4 2 8.4 8.7 4.6 3 4.1 4.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Flaminia down, Mezzolara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Serie D - Girone E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone E matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Flaminia at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mezzolara away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Flaminia, 1.07 for Mezzolara. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone E this season · since 12 Sept

FLAMINIA

WDLWDL1–0 · 2–2 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

MEZZOLARA

LWDDDD0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prato	7	+7	17
2	Gavorrano	7	+6	15
3	Lucchese	7	+5	14
4	Seravezza	7	+10	13
5	Robur Siena	7	+6	13
6	Tau Altopascio	7	−2	13
7	Scandicci	7	+5	12
8	Flaminia	7	−1	11
9	Ternana	7	+4	9
10	Terranuova Traiana	7	+2	9
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	7	−2	8
12	Mezzolara	7	−2	8
13	Rondinella	7	−4	8
14	Montevarchi Calcio	7	−3	7
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	7	−5	5
16	Grassina	7	−7	3
17	Progresso	7	−12	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	7	−7	2