USD Casatese v Pro Patria

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said USD Casatese win at 37%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: USD Casatese was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–34
3. 1′KICK-OFF USD Casatese v Pro Patria
4. 28′Pro Patria score on 20′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
5. 28′We said USD Casatese at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–22–66
6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 20' USD Casatese 0–1 Pro Patria
7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' USD Casatese win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
8. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Pro Patria win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was USD Casatese win 12%)
9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 12–22–66
10. 41′We said USD Casatese at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
11. 44′USD Casatese find the net on 44′. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–41–28
12. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' USD Casatese 1–1 Pro Patria
13. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' USD Casatese win: 37% at kick-off, 31% now
14. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Pro Patria win 28%)
15. 45′USD Casatese level it on 34′ through M. Isella. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–42–28
16. 45′HALF-TIME USD Casatese 1–1 Pro Patria
17. 46′SECOND HALF USD Casatese 1–1 Pro Patria
18. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' USD Casatese win: 37% at kick-off, 26% now
19. 59′We said USD Casatese at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–51–24
20. 61′We said USD Casatese at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
21. 70′We said USD Casatese at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–18
22. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' USD Casatese win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
23. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' USD Casatese win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
24. 88′A goal for Pro Patria on 88′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
25. 88′We said USD Casatese at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
26. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' USD Casatese 1–2 Pro Patria
27. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Pro Patria win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
28. 89′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–4–95
29. FTFULL TIME USD Casatese 1–2 Pro Patria
30. FTUSD Casatese 1–2 Pro Patria · USD Casatese win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.