Solbiatese v Lentigione prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Solbiatese 2–2 Lentigione LENTIGIONE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lentigione win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lentigione are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Solbiatese 24%, draw 29%, Lentigione 47%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Solbiatese v LentigioneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Solbiatese win24%

Draw29%

Lentigione win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Solbiatese

Lentigione

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Lentigione	7	+5	16
13	Solbiatese	6	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lentigione winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Lentigione a 47% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Solbiatese v Lentigione~~0.88 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 16~~13 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Solbiatese win	24%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Lentigione win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Solbiatese or draw	53%	–	–
Solbiatese clean sheet	27%	–	–
Lentigione clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.7 14.0 9.7 4.4 1 9.0 12.9 8.3 3.8 2 4.2 5.5 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Solbiatese down, Lentigione across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,741 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Solbiatese at home: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Lentigione away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Solbiatese, 1.35 for Lentigione. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 6 Sept

SOLBIATESE

LDDLWD0–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–1

LENTIGIONE

WWLDWW1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	7	+17	21
2	Pro Patria	7	+7	16
3	Lentigione	7	+5	16
4	Castellanzese	7	+9	15
5	Pro Sesto	7	+12	14
6	USD Casatese	7	+2	13
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	7	+2	10
8	Correggese	7	−3	10
9	Città di Varese	7	+2	9
10	Pavia	7	+2	8
11	Sant'Angelo	7	−1	8
12	Varesina	7	−3	6
13	Solbiatese	6	−4	6
14	Coriano	6	−2	5
15	Crema	7	−10	5
16	Arconatese	7	−10	3
17	Oltrepò	7	−12	3
18	Pontedera	7	−13	3