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Solbiatese v Coriano

Solbiatese
2–1Full time
Coriano

Serie D - Girone D · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 16:31
Solbiatese 2–1 Coriano SOLBIATESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Solbiatese win45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Solbiatese win at 45%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Solbiatese 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Solbiatese v Coriano
  4. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Solbiatese
  5. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Coriano
  6. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Solbiatese win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  7. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Solbiatese win 39%)
  8. 43′A goal for Solbiatese on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
  9. 43′We said Solbiatese at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
  10. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Solbiatese 1–0 Coriano
  11. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Solbiatese win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
  12. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Solbiatese win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 43%)
  13. 45′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 79–17–4
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Solbiatese 1–0 Coriano
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Solbiatese 1–0 Coriano
  16. 49′We said Solbiatese at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  17. 56′Solbiatese score on 55′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  18. 56′We said Solbiatese at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  19. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Solbiatese 2–0 Coriano
  20. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Solbiatese win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
  21. 79′We said Solbiatese at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 89′Coriano find the net on 89′. 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
  23. 89′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
  24. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Solbiatese 2–1 Coriano
  25. FTFULL TIME Solbiatese 2–1 Coriano
  26. FTSolbiatese 2–1 Coriano · Solbiatese win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Solbiatese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Solbiatese 45%, draw 30%, Coriano 25%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Solbiatese v CorianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Solbiatese win45%
Draw30%
Coriano win25%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Solbiatese

Coriano

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Solbiatese7−47
15Coriano7−45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · solbiatese winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make Solbiatese a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Solbiatese v Coriano1.25 – 0.87
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 12 SeptW1 D4 L1 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 7 v 514 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 13:39
Our probability · Solbiatese win

Published at 43%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Solbiatese win45%––
Draw30%––
Coriano win25%––
Over 2.5 goals36%––
Both teams to score41%––
Over 1.5 goals63%––
Over 3.5 goals17%––
Solbiatese or draw75%––
Solbiatese clean sheet43%––
Coriano clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%
0123450 13.0 9.9 4.6 1 14.4 13.3 5.5 2 9.3 7.9 3.4 3 4.0 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Solbiatese down, Coriano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 12 Sept

SOLBIATESE

DDLWDD0–0 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

CORIANO

LLWDLL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pistoiese8+1824
2Pro Patria8+819
3Castellanzese8+1118
4Lentigione8+517
5Pro Sesto8+1215
6USD Casatese8+113
7Città di Varese8+612
8Cittadella Vis Modena8+211
9Sant'Angelo8+111
10Correggese8−510
11Pavia8+18
12Crema8−78
13Varesina8−37
14Solbiatese7−47
15Coriano7−45
16Oltrepò8−124
17Arconatese8−143
18Pontedera8−163

The competition's standings before kick-off.