Sant'Angelo v Coriano prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Sant'Angelo 2–0 Coriano SANT'ANGELO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sant'Angelo win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.506

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sant'Angelo win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sant'Angelo was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
1′KICK-OFF Sant'Angelo v Coriano
17′Sant'Angelo find the net on 17′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
17′We published Sant'Angelo at 42%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Sant'Angelo 1–0 Coriano
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Sant'Angelo win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
37′We published Sant'Angelo at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
45′HALF-TIME Sant'Angelo 1–0 Coriano
46′SECOND HALF Sant'Angelo 1–0 Coriano
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Sant'Angelo win: 42% at kick-off, 76% now
58′We published Sant'Angelo at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Sant'Angelo win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
70′We published Sant'Angelo at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
79′We published Sant'Angelo at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sant'Angelo win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
85′We published Sant'Angelo at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Sant'Angelo 2–0 Coriano
FTSant'Angelo 2–0 Coriano · Sant'Angelo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sant'Angelo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sant'Angelo 42%, draw 29%, Coriano 29%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Sant'Angelo v CorianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sant'Angelo win42%

Draw29%

Coriano win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sant'Angelo

Coriano

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

Last match: 14 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sant'Angelo	7	−1	8
14	Coriano	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sant'angelo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:49 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Sant'Angelo a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sant'Angelo v Coriano~~1.27 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 5~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sant'Angelo win

Published at 41%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sant'Angelo win	42%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Coriano win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Sant'Angelo or draw	71%	–	–
Sant'Angelo clean sheet	37%	–	–
Coriano clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.3 9.9 5.2 1 12.6 13.3 6.4 2.2 2 8.3 8.0 4.0 3 3.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sant'Angelo down, Coriano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,742 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sant'Angelo at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Coriano away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Sant'Angelo, 1.00 for Coriano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 3–1 COR · COR 0–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 6 Sept

SANT'ANGELO

DWDLLL1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1

CORIANO

DLLWDL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	7	+17	21
2	Lentigione	8	+5	17
3	Pro Patria	7	+7	16
4	Castellanzese	7	+9	15
5	Pro Sesto	7	+12	14
6	USD Casatese	7	+2	13
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	7	+2	10
8	Correggese	7	−3	10
9	Città di Varese	7	+2	9
10	Pavia	7	+2	8
11	Sant'Angelo	7	−1	8
12	Solbiatese	7	−4	7
13	Varesina	7	−3	6
14	Coriano	6	−2	5
15	Crema	7	−10	5
16	Arconatese	7	−10	3
17	Oltrepò	7	−12	3
18	Pontedera	7	−13	3