Pro Sesto v Solbiatese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Pro Sesto 1–1 Solbiatese PRO SESTO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pro Sesto win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.896

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pro Sesto win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Pro Sesto v Solbiatese
2′Much as we predicted: Pro Sesto was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
4′Much as we predicted: Pro Sesto was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
45′HALF-TIME Pro Sesto 0–0 Solbiatese
46′SECOND HALF Pro Sesto 0–0 Solbiatese
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Pro Sesto 1–0 Solbiatese
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Pro Sesto 1–1 Solbiatese
FTFULL TIME Pro Sesto 1–1 Solbiatese
FTPro Sesto 1–1 Solbiatese · Pro Sesto win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pro Sesto win55%

Draw26%

Solbiatese win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Ernesto Breda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pro Sesto

Solbiatese

7Days since last match14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Pro Sesto	6	+12	13
12	Solbiatese	5	−4	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pro sesto winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Pro Sesto a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pro Sesto win	55%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Solbiatese win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Pro Sesto or draw	81%	–	–
Pro Sesto clean sheet	43%	–	–
Solbiatese clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 9.3 6.7 3.1 1 13.1 11.8 4.8 2 11.0 9.1 3.8 3 6.1 5.0 2.1 4 2.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pro Sesto down, Solbiatese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Pro Sesto at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Solbiatese away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Pro Sesto, 0.85 for Solbiatese. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D

PRO SESTO

LWWWWD2–3 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 6–1 · 1–1

SOLBIATESE

LDDLW0–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	6	+16	18
2	Pro Sesto	6	+12	13
3	Pro Patria	6	+6	13
4	Lentigione	6	+3	13
5	Castellanzese	6	+8	12
6	Correggese	6	+1	11
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	6	+3	10
8	USD Casatese	6	+1	10
9	Città di Varese	6	0	6
10	Sant'Angelo	6	−3	6
11	Varesina	6	−3	5
12	Solbiatese	5	−4	5
13	Coriano	4	−1	4
14	Pavia	5	−1	4
15	Crema	6	−10	4
16	Oltrepò	5	−7	3
17	Arconatese	6	−9	3
18	Pontedera	5	−12	0