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Model 1.1

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Pro Patria v Sant'Angelo

Pro Patria
1–0Full time
Sant'Angelo

Serie D - Girone D · SUN 11 OCT · Carlo Speroni

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56
Pro Patria 1–0 Sant'Angelo PRO PATRIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Pro Patria win49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.390

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pro Patria win at 49%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Pro Patria v Sant'Angelo
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Pro Patria 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
  4. 4′Little has changed for our model: Pro Patria 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Pro Patria 0–0 Sant'Angelo
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Pro Patria 0–0 Sant'Angelo
  7. 90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Pro Patria 1–0 Sant'Angelo
  8. FTFULL TIME Pro Patria 1–0 Sant'Angelo
  9. FTPro Patria 1–0 Sant'Angelo · Pro Patria win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pro Patria win49%
Draw26%
Sant'Angelo win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueCarlo Speroni

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pro Patria

Sant'Angelo

7Days since last match7
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Pro Patria6+613
10Sant'Angelo6−36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pro patria winPublished 11 Oct 14:09
49% The market–
Us49%

We make Pro Patria a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Pro Patria win49%––
Draw26%––
Sant'Angelo win25%––
Over 2.5 goals47%––
Both teams to score50%––
Over 1.5 goals73%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
Pro Patria or draw75%––
Pro Patria clean sheet37%––
Sant'Angelo clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 8.6 7.4 4.0 1 11.4 12.3 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 9.0 4.6 3 4.8 4.7 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Pro Patria down, Sant'Angelo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D

PRO PATRIA

WWWWLD2–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

SANT'ANGELO

DDWDLL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pistoiese6+1618
2Pro Sesto6+1213
3Pro Patria6+613
4Lentigione6+313
5Castellanzese6+812
6Correggese6+111
7Cittadella Vis Modena6+310
8USD Casatese6+110
9Città di Varese606
10Sant'Angelo6−36
11Varesina6−35
12Solbiatese5−45
13Coriano4−14
14Pavia5−14
15Crema6−104
16Oltrepò5−73
17Arconatese6−93
18Pontedera5−120

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.