Pontedera v Oltrepò prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PontederaDrawOltrepò

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Oltrepò 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Oltrepò just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pontedera 35%, draw 26%, Oltrepò 38%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Pontedera v OltrepòBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pontedera win35%

Draw26%

Oltrepò win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup D · matchday 9

VenueStadio Ettore Mannucci

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pontedera

Oltrepò

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Oltrepò	8	−12	4
18	Pontedera	8	−16	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oltrepò winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Oltrepò a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pontedera v Oltrepò~~1.36 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~18 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pontedera win	35%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Oltrepò win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Pontedera or draw	62%	–	–
Pontedera clean sheet	25%	–	–
Oltrepò clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 8.3 6.3 3.0 1 7.9 12.2 8.2 4.0 2 5.7 7.8 5.5 2.7 3 2.6 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pontedera down, Oltrepò across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,751 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Pontedera at home: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 3). Oltrepò away: 0.75 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Pontedera, 1.43 for Oltrepò. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 16 Sept

PONTEDERA

LLLLWL0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–4

OLTREPÒ

WLLLLD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–6 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	8	+18	24
2	Pro Patria	8	+8	19
3	Castellanzese	8	+11	18
4	Lentigione	8	+5	17
5	Pro Sesto	8	+12	15
6	USD Casatese	8	+1	13
7	Città di Varese	8	+6	12
8	Cittadella Vis Modena	8	+2	11
9	Sant'Angelo	8	+1	11
10	Solbiatese	8	−3	10
11	Correggese	8	−5	10
12	Pavia	8	+1	8
13	Crema	8	−7	8
14	Varesina	8	−3	7
15	Coriano	8	−5	5
16	Oltrepò	8	−12	4
17	Arconatese	8	−14	3
18	Pontedera	8	−16	3