Pistoiese v Pavia

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pistoiese win at 64%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Pistoiese 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–24–13
3. 1′KICK-OFF Pistoiese v Pavia
4. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Pistoiese win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
5. 36′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–35–13
6. 43′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–38–13
7. 45′HALF-TIME Pistoiese 0–0 Pavia
8. 46′SECOND HALF Pistoiese 0–0 Pavia
9. 52′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–44–12
10. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Pistoiese win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
11. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 42–46–12
12. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Pistoiese win 41%)
13. 59′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–50–11
14. 65′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–56–10
15. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Pistoiese win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
16. 70′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–62–9
17. 75′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–69–7
18. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Pistoiese win: 64% at kick-off, 23% now
19. 79′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–76–6
20. 82′Pavia are down to ten from 81′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 14–82–5
21. 82′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–82–5
22. 82′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Pavia
23. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Pistoiese win: 64% at kick-off, 14% now
24. 86′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
25. 92′We said Pistoiese at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–1
26. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Pistoiese win: 64% at kick-off, 4% now
27. 94′Pistoiese score on 90′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
28. 94′We said Pistoiese at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–0 · 99–1–0
29. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Pistoiese 1–0 Pavia
30. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Pistoiese win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
31. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Pistoiese win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
32. FTFULL TIME Pistoiese 1–0 Pavia
33. FTPistoiese 1–0 Pavia · Pistoiese win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.