Pistoiese v Correggese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Pistoiese 1–0 Correggese PISTOIESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pistoiese win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.227

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pistoiese win at 62%.
1′KICK-OFF Pistoiese v Correggese
3′Much as we predicted: Pistoiese was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–24–14
6′Much as we predicted: Pistoiese was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–24–14
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Pistoiese 1–0 Correggese
40′33′ and it is 1–0: Pistoiese have scored. 1–0 · 86–12–2
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 86% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 54% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 54% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 86% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 86% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 54% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 54% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 86% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 86% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 54% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Pistoiese win: 62% at kick-off, 86% now
45′HALF-TIME Pistoiese 1–0 Correggese
46′SECOND HALF Pistoiese 1–0 Correggese
FTFULL TIME Pistoiese 1–0 Correggese
FTPistoiese 1–0 Correggese · Pistoiese win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pistoiese win62%

Draw24%

Correggese win14%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pistoiese

Correggese

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	6	+16	18
6	Correggese	6	+1	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pistoiese winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Pistoiese a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pistoiese win	62%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Correggese win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Pistoiese or draw	86%	–	–
Pistoiese clean sheet	52%	–	–
Correggese clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 10.1 5.9 2.2 1 15.2 10.8 3.6 2 13.2 8.6 2.9 3 7.7 4.9 4 3.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pistoiese down, Correggese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pistoiese at home: 2.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Correggese away: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Pistoiese, 0.67 for Correggese. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~COR 0–3 PIS · PIS 1–1 COR · COR 3–2 PIS · PIS 1–0 COR

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D

PISTOIESE

WWWWWW2–0 · 3–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–0

CORREGGESE

DDWLWW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	6	+16	18
2	Pro Sesto	6	+12	13
3	Pro Patria	6	+6	13
4	Lentigione	6	+3	13
5	Castellanzese	6	+8	12
6	Correggese	6	+1	11
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	6	+3	10
8	USD Casatese	6	+1	10
9	Città di Varese	6	0	6
10	Sant'Angelo	6	−3	6
11	Varesina	6	−3	5
12	Solbiatese	5	−4	5
13	Coriano	4	−1	4
14	Pavia	5	−1	4
15	Crema	6	−10	4
16	Oltrepò	5	−7	3
17	Arconatese	6	−9	3
18	Pontedera	5	−12	0